A flood watch is in effect for the southern reaches of Mesa County, particularly rural areas south of Grand Junction, and will remain in place until Wednesday morning. The National Weather Service issued the watch, which commenced at 6 a.m. Monday, Sept. 28, and is slated to expire at 6 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 30. The advisory comes in response to a forecast predicting 1 to 4 inches of rain across the watch area in the coming days.
For local residents in the affected rural parts of Mesa County, south of Grand Junction, rainfall is specifically anticipated to be between 1 and 2 inches by the time the watch concludes on Wednesday morning. It is important to note that Grand Junction itself is not included in the flood watch area; the city is expected to receive no more than 1 inch of rain over the same two-day period, according to the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service indicated that "rivers and tributaries will see a rise due to the forecast rainfall." While Mesa County contains some of the lowest-risk areas within the broader flood watch zone, the NWS also cautioned that localized heavier amounts could lead to flooding in the southern San Juan foothills and communities further downstream.
The wider forecast suggests more substantial rainfall for regions further south in Colorado. Areas located near Durango, Silverton, and Pagosa Springs, for example, have the potential to experience 4 or more inches of rainfall over the next few days. This contrasts with the lower projections for Mesa County.
The source of this incoming moisture is attributed to atmospheric conditions linked to tropical systems in the Pacific Ocean. Tropical Storm Odalys and Hurricane Polo, currently approaching California and Mexico, are projected to spread moisture into the desert southwest throughout this week. The National Weather Service had expected atmospheric moisture levels in our area to reach their peak on Monday, contributing to the conditions prompting the watch.
Despite the origins of this weather pattern leading to moderate to heavy rainfall in southeast Utah and the southern parts of Colorado, the National Weather Service maintains that the likelihood of any part of Mesa County receiving more than 2 inches of precipitation within any 48-hour period is relatively low, specifically no greater than 20 percent. Residents in the southern parts of the county should remain aware of the flood watch and current conditions.
